[SMM Hot Topic] How Much Longer Will the Window for Exporting Sheets & Plates to Southeast Asia Last? A Detailed Look at Southeast Asia's Sheets & Plates Production Lines

Southeast Asia Is an Important Trading Partner for China's Sheets & Plates

Southeast Asia is an important trading partner for China's sheets & plates, accounting for nearly 40% of China's total HRC exports.

Since 2023, China's exports to Southeast Asia have continued to grow, and Southeast Asia has gradually become China's largest export partner. Southeast Asian countries import a large volume of finished steel from China, particularly HRC, which has shown strong performance over the past three years. From January-November 2024, China exported 9.72 million mt of HRC to Southeast Asia, accounting for nearly 40% of China's total global exports.

Southeast Asia Becomes the Main Region for Anti-Dumping Measures Against Chinese Steel

Due to the significant increase in Chinese steel exports to Southeast Asia, Southeast Asian countries have launched a series of anti-dumping investigations against China. According to SMM statistics, there were approximately 96 anti-dumping investigations against Chinese steel by overseas countries in 2024, up 10% YoY. Among them, Vietnam and Thailand ranked among the top ten countries with the most anti-dumping investigations against China. Although Southeast Asian countries have initiated safeguard reviews on Chinese steel exports, these reviews have often been postponed due to the inability of local production capacity in some regions to meet downstream consumption demand.

Southeast Asian countries are gradually expanding the scope of product categories covered by anti-dumping measures against Chinese steel and increasing punitive tariffs, which will raise the cost of Chinese steel exports. With the commissioning of new local sheets & plates production lines in Southeast Asia, China's sheets & plates exports are expected to decline to some extent in the future.

Southeast Asia's Crude Steel Capacity Enters a New Phase of Expansion

Driven by overseas investment, advanced technology, and sustainable development strategies, the ASEAN steel industry is at a critical turning point.

In 2023, Southeast Asia's crude steel capacity was 81 million mt, and it is expected to reach 90 million mt in 2024, up 11.4% YoY. By 2030, Southeast Asia's steel capacity is expected to exceed 160 million mt.

Indonesia and Vietnam are the main regions for crude steel capacity expansion in Southeast Asia in the coming years. Indonesia plans to increase its steel capacity from 16.8 million mt to 45 million mt by combining converters and electric furnaces, transitioning from a product structure dominated by long products to one focused on sheets & plates. Vietnam is building a large steel mill with a capacity of 5.6 million mt through domestic and foreign investment. Malaysia and Thailand are focusing on modernization, aiming to promote sustainable development in the steel industry through advanced technology.

Southeast Asia's Steel Product Structure Undergoes Significant Transformation, Sheets & Plates Capacity Expands

Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia Are Leaders in Steel Industry Transformation

For a long time, steel in Southeast Asia has been primarily used in the construction industry, leading to rapid expansion of long product capacity, while sheets & plates production capacity has been relatively weak. Structural overcapacity in steel production is particularly prominent in countries with rapidly expanding steel industries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Additionally, the global demand for green and low-carbon steel continues to grow, putting transformation pressure on Southeast Asian steel exports.

There are significant differences in steel capacity among Southeast Asian countries. Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia are the main countries in the region with sheets & plates production capacity, with Indonesia contributing nearly half of the sheets & plates capacity. Driven by the growth in demand from the automotive and other manufacturing industries, Indonesia is also the fastest-growing country in sheets & plates demand in Southeast Asia. Vietnam is the largest consumer of sheets & plates in Southeast Asia, but its production has declined in recent years due to slowing demand growth. Sheets & plates demand in Thailand and Malaysia remains relatively stable. With the gradual transformation of downstream steel consumption structures, sheets & plates consumption in Thailand and other countries is expected to increase slightly in 2024. Sheets & plates demand in Southeast Asia is expected to maintain a growth trend in the coming years.

As sheets & plates consumption demand rises in the Southeast Asian market, the imbalance in the steel supply structure will become increasingly prominent. Actively developing local sheets & plates capacity and reducing import dependency have become key tasks for Southeast Asian countries. With the influx of numerous capacity investment projects, according to incomplete statistics by SMM,Southeast Asia will add 12 million mt of new sheets & plates capacity in 2024,and at least another 12 million mt of sheets & plates capacity is expected to be added in the next five years. With the commissioning of sheets & plates production lines in Southeast Asia, sheets & plates imports in the region will decline, leaving a very short window for China's sheets & plates exports to Southeast Asia.

Chinese Sheets & Plates Exporters or Steel Mills: First, optimize export channels and reduce export costs to compete with local steel enterprises. Second, deepen research on the Southeast Asian market and export grades/specifications that are lacking locally or export higher-end sheets & plates products. Third, seek other markets for export growth.

SMM Ferrous Consulting: Southeast Asia Market Research

There are numerous long/short-process steel enterprises in Southeast Asia, and due to space limitations, this article cannot list them all. The SMM Ferrous Consulting team has been closely monitoring the Southeast Asian steel market. If you wish to obtain the distribution map of sheets & plates production by Southeast Asian steel enterprises below or discuss more industry insights with us, please scan the QR code or contact us via WeChat at 15336170718.

The SMM Ferrous Consulting team specializes in researching the Southeast Asian steel market, providing in-depth analysis of key factors such as market supply and demand, capacity structure, price fluctuations, and policy impacts. By publishing industry analysis reports and combining market data and trends, the team helps enterprises seize market opportunities and address challenges. Working closely with major steel producers, traders, and end-users in the region, the team provides the latest market intelligence and deep insights, with a unique focus on sheets & plates, long products, and special steel. Additionally, the team analyzes the steel industry chain in major Southeast Asian countries (such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia), evaluating capacity investments, market demand, and development potential to help clients make informed decisions in a complex market environment.

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